[anth-volk]

Fixes #2218.

Summary

Changes 11 files against main, adding one GBP input for an externally assessed annual HB permitted-work disregard. It replaces the ordinary standard, retains a higher lone-parent amount and is capped at net earnings. Additional and accommodation disregards remain separately conditional.

The approved C6 approach requires external assessment of qualifying status, exempt work, statutory earnings limits and partner allocations, rather than inference from gross earnings. There is no new ESA/eligibility engine or verified dataset mapping. Missing/zero input retains the ordinary-disregard approximation and may understate qualifying awards; variable documentation explains these limitations.

Government sources embedded in code: GB working-age Schedule 4 paragraph 10A, GB pension-age paragraph 5A, and the matching NI working-age and pension-age provisions.

Savings-credit-only correction

GB regulation 27(4) and NI regulation 25(4) permit only specified modifications to PC's assessed net income. The lone-parent/permitted-work adjustment therefore accounts for PC's existing earnings disregard; paragraph 9(1)'s additional disregard comes off in full.

Both HB calculations read a shared applied standard, preserving permitted-work replacement, the lone-parent proviso and the earnings cap. Subtracting it isolates paragraph 9 correctly, also correcting main's over-deduction for families on the special £20 route without permitted work.

• Legal permitted-work reproducer: £22,315.28 → £22,835.28 annual HB income.
• Special £20 carer couple: £19,715.12 → £20,235.12; only paragraph 9 comes off.
• Hypothetical PC £30/week reform, lone parents with lower/higher permitted amounts: [£17,210.80, £16,430.80] → [£17,210.80, £16,690.80]. Lower-permitted results intentionally agree. At statutory PC rates the income error cancels; the component property detects the missing lone-parent proviso.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/housing_benefit_savings_credit_only.yaml

Invariants

• I1: Additional residual equals the included paragraph 9 amount: zero or the prescribed amount.
• I2: Standard modification is zero unless lone-parent/permitted-work grounds apply; otherwise it is max(0, applied standard − PC earnings disregard).
• I3: Income is nonnegative and equals the war-pension-adjusted PC assessment plus savings credit, less childcare and permitted modifications, floored at zero.
• I4: Increasing PC earnings disregard or assessed income never lowers HB income, holding other inputs fixed.
• I5: Ordinary families without permitted work, lone-parent or special-standard grounds retain main's formula.

Validation and dependencies

Prior-head validation at a67175429, after main 6030cbc0b: permitted-work YAML 37/37; applicable-income directory 182/182; 13 HB Python files plus CTR pensioner earnings 161/161 (-n 2), without skips/failures. Age-agreement and selected-standard properties passed separately; Ruff formatting/lint and git diff --check were clean.

Current-head validation: savings-credit YAML 13/13 and permitted-work YAML 37/37 passed; all six Hypothesis properties implementing I1–I5 passed individually with -k and -n 1; the existing selected-standard property passed separately. Ruff formatting/lint passed on all seven Python files changed by the PR, and git diff --check passed. Scratch mutations intentionally failed: old ordinary subtraction produced 4 YAML failures/11 passes and failed I1/I2; removing the lone-parent arm produced 2 YAML failures/13 passes and failed I1. All working-source byte-identity guards passed. The fixed source passed all 15 extended YAML checks, including the reduced controls, in 43.50 s. No local full suite, microsimulation or dataset load.

CI snapshot at 12:39 UTC: Fix Evidence passed at f06c4ea82; an earlier duplicate was cancelled. No test or Aggregate impact run is visible for this head. Existing Aggregate comment 6462145998 links run 40636400448 at old head a67175429 and is not credited to the new head. The 30-minute impact-wait limit passed while local mutation verification continued; no further CI wait.

#2225's special standard merged on 25 October; this branch merged main at a60062f0e and again at 65da54d84 (merge ac857c27a, which keeps the shared applied-standard call and moves #2703's corrected paragraph citation into housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard.py). Childcare and first-year accommodation changes (#2229, #2234) follow this replacement.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued; TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#434 queued

Rulespec extension evidence, statutory outputs and companion tests were recorded by the UK hub on 24 October.

#375 queues the earnings/special/permitted-work extension; #434 separately queues the regulation 27 savings-credit pipeline. Corpus blockers and the subsequent signed-approval requirement are recorded; no encoder has been dispatched.

[MaxGhenis]

Parent-gated build hand-off. Head remains a66b990b52a468d2182d3154cbcbf8da66982b1a; no branch changes, push or retarget. Immediate parent #2225 is still OPEN/unmerged at 6e68f23fafef3a1e0a1718bd5d1e4bc0fa860c72 (checked 22 October). Root #2211 has a local reconciliation awaiting the required disk gate: #2211 (comment)

Tests for this child: 0 executed in this job; no claim is made about the current head's CI. Preserve Anthony's corrected disabled-worker earnings-disregard regression (£1,929.20) when updating the base. Draft status unchanged; no merge/readiness/closure action.

Once #2225 lands, the pending commands are:

git fetch origin main add-hb-permitted-work
git switch add-hb-permitted-work  # create tracking branch if absent
git merge --no-ff origin/main
# Resolve, run focused foreground tests with -n 2 after load1 <=110 and
# os.statvfs available disk >=55 GB decimal; commit fixes and push once.
gh api -X PATCH repos/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pulls/2219 -f base=main

Open items: parent landing; merge/test/push/body refresh as needed; retarget; hub independent review. #2229 remains gated on this PR's landing.

[juaristi22]

Reviewed at a66b990b52a468d2182d3154cbcbf8da66982b1a, limited to the permitted-work change over its stacked parent. No actionable findings from independent policy/source and code reviews.

The component replaces the selected ordinary disregard, preserves a higher lone-parent amount and caps the result at earnings. Its external pre-assessment contract matches the GB working-age rule and corresponding GB pension-age/NI provisions. It does not infer qualifying work or partner allocation from generic flags.

Validation:39 focused tests passed. An eligible claimed-HB integration raises the final award from£6477.90 to£10208.90 when the external£6000 assessment is supplied, exactly65% of the£5740 replacement difference; passport and cap effects were excluded. The documented upstream-assessment coverage limitation and stacked-parent merge order remain.

[MaxGhenis]

Hub hand-off: main merged, #2225's owed tests added

New head: a67175429937ed802f7817fb9e772eac06ec0217. It fast-forwards from Anthony's a66b990b5 with two commits:

• a60062f0e: a real merge of main 6030cbc0b.
• a67175429: tests and documentation.

No force-push or rebase. The PR is still a draft, and I made no review, merge or readiness change.

The merge and its conflict resolution

There was no textual conflict. This branch was stacked on #2225's e70d95531. No commit on main since then touches any of this PR's four files, housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py included (git log e70d95531..origin/main -- <files> is empty). That includes #2225's own later commits through its merged head 05246aa1d. So git took this branch's version of that file, and git merge-tree is clean.

What the merged formula now does:

• It keeps main's Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 logic unchanged:
  • housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard selects the standard amount: lone parent £25, then special £20, then couple £10, then single £5, capped at net earnings.
  • Its eligibility comes from housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible. That covers the pension-age SDA, AA, DLA, PIP and AFIP receipts, blindness, disability WTC (award and element) and carer premium, plus the working-age premium route.
  • Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225's later commits, through 05246aa1d (the CTR oracle fix, the disabled-single pin and an eligibility docstring), touched only files this PR doesn't.
• It then applies the permitted-work replacement, min(net, max(permitted, is_lone_parent × standard)) when permitted > 0, before the accommodation and additional amounts. That ordering is unchanged from Anthony's commit.
• Anthony's corrected £1,929.20 disabled-worker regression (6e68f23fa, in housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.yaml) is on main and passes, as part of the 182/182 directory run below.

Added tests (from #2225's delta review §6)

The arithmetic is written into the YAML comments. The law is SI 2006/214 Sch 4 paras 5 and 5A and SR 2006/406 Sch 5 paras 5 and 5A, fetched from legislation.gov.uk today. The specified amount comes from ESA Regs 2008 reg 45(4) and (9A), SR 2008/280 reg 45(4) and (9A), and SI 1995/311 reg 17(4) and (10). For 2024-25 it is 16 × £11.44 (the model's adult minimum wage), rounded up to the next 50p: £183.50 a week.

In each couple case, A does exempt work for £60 a week and B earns £100 a week from other work. Under para 5A(4), B's disregard is the smallest of £100, £183.50 − £60 and £20, which is £20. So the permitted amount is (£60 + £20) × 52 = £4,160, and net earnings are £8,320.

1. England and NI, pension-age SDA recipient (A) in exempt work.
   • Eligibility is derived: para 5(1)(a)(ii).
   • It pins the selected standard at £1,040 and the applied disregard at £4,160. The applied amount is not £5,200 (stacked) and not £1,040. Para 5A(2) says paras 1 to 5 and 7 do not apply.
2. England and NI, pension-age blind claimant (B) whose partner (A, 63) is on contributory ESA in reg 45(4) exempt work.
   • Eligibility is derived from blindness alone: para 5(1)(b). Neither member gets SDA.
   • The expected values are the same.
3. Lone parent at the permitted-work maximum, England and NI, working age.
   • The permitted amount is £183.50 × 52 = £9,542. That is not less than para 4's £25, so the para 10A(2) proviso does not apply, and £9,542 is disregarded.
   • With net earnings of £9,282, the disregard is capped at £9,282.
   • The result holds whether or not the family is special-eligible. The selected standard stays at £1,300.
4. A permitted-work draw in test_selected_standard_has_statutory_precedence_and_is_capped_at_net_earnings. The draws are 0, £1,040, £1,299.99, £1,300, £1,300.01, £9,542, and any pence amount up to £20,000. The @example grid is 4 shapes × 10 nets × 2 flags × 7 permitted amounts. With every other term held at nil, the test asserts:
   • the selected standard is unchanged by permitted work;
   • the applied disregard is min(net, permitted), or for a lone parent min(net, max(permitted, £1,300));
   • it lies between 0 and net;
   • it never exceeds the larger of the two amounts, so they never stack.
5. Documentation, not a move. housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard now says it is the amount before permitted work, and that housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard replaces it. The formula is unchanged. Why this rather than moving the replacement into it:
   • It is the smaller change: documentation only.
   • The replacement stays in the one formula that composes the accommodation and additional amounts para 10A leaves standing.
   • Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225's pinned contract (YAML :335 and the property) keeps its meaning.
   • Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229 already re-applies the replacement on top of this variable in its hb_standard_earnings_disregard helper. That helper exists only on Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229's branch, which I did not touch.

Test results (local, this head's tree; run_capped.py --rss-gb 4, one process at a time)

Run	Result
housing_benefit_permitted_work.yaml	37/37 passed (32 original + 5 new)
HB applicable_income/ YAML directory	182/182 passed
13 test_housing_benefit_*/test_hb_* files + CTR pensioner-disregard properties, -n 2 -m "not microsimulation"	161/161 passed, none skipped (20m29s)
test_pension_age_and_working_age_schedules_agree + the extended selected-standard property, alone	2/2 passed
ruff format ., ruff check ., git diff --check	clean

I ran no microsimulation, dataset-loading test or full suite.

Mutation check. I applied each mutant to the formula's max_(…) term and restored the file afterwards (git diff on it is empty):

• Stacking (permitted + standard): killed.
  • 27/37 YAML cases fail, including all four new SDA and blindness cases (£5,200 against £4,160).
  • The property fails on an explicit example, ('single', 520, False, 500).
  • The lone-parent maximum cases don't kill this mutant, because net earnings cap them at the limit.
• Max with the special £20 (max_(permitted, standard)): killed.
  • Only by Anthony's first case (£1,040 against £500) and by the property, ('single', 520, True, 500).
  • The new cases don't kill it, and that is expected. With lawful inputs the specified amount is at least £20 (reg 45(2), reg 17(2)), so replacement and max coincide for real cases.

CI: run 40636400501 and siblings started on a67175429 and were pending when I posted this. Lint, Changes and Changelog fragments had passed. mergeable is MERGEABLE, and the merge state is BLOCKED while checks run.

Still owed

• CI. Test / Result and the Aggregate impact need to finish green on a67175429.
• The PR body's "Merge dependency" paragraph is stale. Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 merged on 25 Oct. I left it alone because I only updated the Validation paragraph. The base is already main, so the retarget step in the 22 Oct comment is moot.
• An independent review of this head, then a ruling on readiness. Draft status, merge and reviews are untouched.
• NI SDA case: the NI exempt-work limit is unverified. It is in SR 1995/41 reg 17(4). legislation.gov.uk's revised text of that regulation still lists unapplied amendments, so I didn't check £183.50 against it. That case's £4,160 is a supplied pre-assessed amount. The GB SDA case and both blindness cases rest on text I did fetch (SI 1995/311 reg 17; SI 2008/794 and SR 2008/280 reg 45).
• A model gap I noticed but did not change. At working age, the model takes the disability premium only from is_disabled_for_benefits, but SI 2006/213 Sch 3 para 13(1)(a)(i) also lists SDA receipt. A working-age SDA recipient without that flag therefore misses the premium and the £20 route. With a positive permitted-work input, para 10A(2) makes the £20 irrelevant, but the premium gap stands.
• Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229 and Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234 still need to merge this head. Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229 is stacked on this branch. I didn't touch either.
• Axiom: the line still reads TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued. The new cases' externally derived values (£4,160, £9,542) could join that issue's companion tests.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a7f6bbee21 against head 29713f8e5a, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main a7f6bbee21	uk 2.162.20 (files 097bc87ac2a7), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	ac31395a7c9e	1eac2ca06b91	1900.02s
head	#2219 merged into main 29713f8e5a	uk 2.162.20 (files 6a573e7e11a1), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	ac31395a7c9e	1eac2ca06b91	1895.11s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
household_benefits	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
gov_balance	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.42bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.62bn †	£1,781.68bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.29bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.67bn	£1,640.49bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.6%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,057k	10,466k	10,734k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,210k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,853k	5,746k	6,021k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,373k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,419k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,366k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,962 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,850 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,145 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,289 †	£47,328 †	£48,286 †	£49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,218 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[MaxGhenis]

@anth-volk UK hub: the review's one P2 is fixed, and main is merged in. Head is now ac857c27a. A delta review is running; this stays a draft until it and CI agree.

• The P2: on the savings-credit-only path, the hub ruled (SI 2006/214 reg 27(4); NI SR 2006/406 reg 25(4)) that the lone-parent and permitted-work amounts come off only above Pension Credit's earnings disregard, and para 9(1) comes off in full. f06c4ea8 puts the standard disregard, after any permitted-work replacement, in one new variable, housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard. The general and savings-credit-only calculations both read it. In the review's reproducer, HB income moves from £22,315.28 to £22,835.28. The same change fixes the special-£20 carer-couple case on main (£19,715.12 to £20,235.12).
• Tests: three new YAML cases and five Hypothesis invariants (I1 to I5) in test_housing_benefit_savings_credit_disregard_properties.py. Two scratch copies, one with the old formula and one without the lone-parent arm, each fail them.
• The merge (ac857c27a): Review follow-ups from recently merged PRs (docs, comments and tests) #2703 had corrected the paragraph citation on the line this branch replaced. The merge keeps the shared call and moves that citation into the new variable. On the merged tree, the five HB YAML files pass (83 cases), and the disregard and savings-credit properties pass (13).

#2229 and #2234 will need this head merged in once it lands.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

@anth-volk UK hub: enqueued at be21fa43c after all checks passed at that head.

• Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol approved ac857c27a with no P1 or P2 findings (round 2, a delta review of the savings-credit fix and the merge with main). It checked the fix against SI 2006/214 reg 27(4) and NI SR 2006/406 reg 25(4), hand-checked all four new cases, confirmed the general path is unchanged, and made each invariant I1 to I5 fail with a scratch mutant.
• After the approved head: be21fa43c changes comments only, in the legal reproducer case of housing_benefit_savings_credit_only.yaml. It applies the review's one P3 ("Pre-fix a671754" for "Current head") and restores the spacing in that case's worked arithmetic. That file's 13 cases pass.
• Earlier approval: María approved an earlier head (a66b990b5) on 24 October.
• Next: Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229, then Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234, merge this head.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code