[juaristi22]

Fixes #2600

Add household_income_decile_ahc, ranked by equivalised household net income after housing costs. It uses household survey weight multiplied by household size, following the existing before-housing-costs decile conventions. Negative values are reset to zero for ranking, and tied values share their group’s upper cumulative rank.

AHC income and poverty measures retain their negative values. The HBAI documentation explains this ranking convention and the population on which a decile is calculated.

axiom: n/a: adds a distributional statistic; no statutory rule, rate or entitlement changes.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_household_income_decile_ahc.py::test_household_income_decile_ahc_weights_people_and_survey_weights

Validation: 1 YAML integration case and 9 focused Python tests passed, including 4 unchanged BHC controls. The integration case distinguishes AHC from BHC ranks and person from household weighting. The original missing-feature failures are retained as TDD evidence. make format and its Ruff check passed before the commit.

Independent local code/test and policy/source review: COMPLETE/APPROVE at f315e258, with no findings or material gaps. The code reviewer rebound the retained passing tests to the committed file hashes without rerunning them. No private dataset calculation, full-suite run or national distributional estimate is claimed. The small Markdown documentation update has not had a documentation build.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 thanks, first-round review at f315e2585. This matches HBAI's decile definition and the existing BHC variable, and the tests pin it. No must or should; two nits, neither needs to hold this up.

What I checked

• HBAI definition, against the HBAI background information and methodology report FYE 2025. Decile groups are ten equal-sized groups of the whole population "when ranked by household income", and "the unit of analysis is the individual", with every member of a household at the same point in the distribution. So the right construction is equivalised household income, AHC basis, with each household counted once per person. household_income_decile_ahc.py:17-22 does exactly that: it ranks equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc (which divides by household_equivalisation_ahc, the AHC scale) with weights of household_weight * household_count_people. The reference anchor (#deciles-and-quintiles) resolves.
• Consistency with the BHC variable: household_income_decile.py uses the same weights and the same MicroSeries.decile_rank(), so ties share the cumulative rank at the top of their group in both. The only difference is the explicit max_(..., 0), which BHC doesn't need because its input is already reset. Consistent.
• Hand check of the YAML case. Person masses are 2, 1 and 2 (total 5). BHC order 1000, 2000, 3000 gives cumulative shares 0.4, 0.6, 1.0, so deciles 4, 6, 10. AHC order 1000, 2000, 3000 sits on households 2, 3, 1 with masses 1, 2, 2, so 0.2, 0.6, 1.0, deciles 2, 6, 10. Both match the expected outputs, and the case does separate AHC from BHC and person from household weighting.
• Tests in a fresh venv: the 5 new Python tests and the 39 YAML cases under tests/policy/baseline/household/income/ pass, and the 4 BHC decile tests still pass. With household_income_decile_ahc.py removed, all 5 new Python tests and the new YAML case fail and the 4 BHC tests pass, so the tests pin the change. ruff check and ruff format --check are clean on the new Python.
• PR body: Fixes #2600, Reproducer: and axiom: n/a: ... are present; n/a fits a ranking statistic. changelog.d/2600.added.md is present.
• CI at head: Lint, Fix evidence, Test / YAML, the docs builds and the four smoke imports pass. The five Python test shards and Aggregate impact were still running after more than half an hour when I posted, so this approval assumes they finish green; if one fails I will look again.
• Not run: anything on survey data, so I haven't measured how many people have AHC income at or below zero.

Findings

1. nit: the reset to zero for ranking is not something HBAI does on the AHC basis. The methodology report says negative AHC incomes "are possible" and keeps them. In practice the two give the same groups as long as people at or below zero AHC make up at most a tenth of the population: with the reset they all share decile 1, and without it they'd all be in decile 1 anyway. Only if that group grew past 10% (say, under a large reform to housing support) would the reset push them all up together. To be fair to you, the reset is what #2600 asked for, so this one is on the issue, not the PR. The docs paragraph already says it is a model convention and not a claim to match DWP's groups, which is enough. No change needed unless you'd rather drop the max_ and match HBAI exactly.

2. nit: there is a person-level income_decile that reads the BHC household decile (income_decile.py:14), but no person-level AHC counterpart. Not needed for #2600, which asks for the household variable; only mention it in case person-level tables are on your list.

Note: the PR is still a draft. Happy for it to go ready as it is.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 4ed874f23d against head 416bba82b0, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 86 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 4ed874f23d	uk 2.152.5 (files 77596e142f87), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	293cdd16b6ad	8d321bae91af	1615.32s
head	#2629 merged into main 416bba82b0	uk 2.152.5 (files 0c4c6c86558c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	293cdd16b6ad	8d321bae91af	1599.63s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.54bn	£351.69bn	£367.24bn	£385.36bn	£403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.50bn	£4.52bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.76bn	£129.65bn	£133.46bn	£137.40bn	£141.47bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.35bn	£7.50bn	£7.65bn	£7.83bn	£8.02bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£83.40bn	£85.21bn	£86.21bn	£87.61bn	£88.91bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.22bn	£9.37bn	£9.64bn	£9.91bn	£10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.98bn	£2.03bn	£2.07bn	£2.12bn	£2.17bn	£2.22bn	£2.26bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.87bn	£0.89bn	£0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£29.28bn	£30.02bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.14bn	£8.34bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.97bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.43bn	£9.67bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.40bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.87bn	£4.99bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.53bn	£17.96bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.77bn	£3.27bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.53bn	£3.61bn	£3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.47bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.47bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,488k	1,470k	1,473k	1,476k	1,475k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,600k	6,512k	6,493k	6,379k	6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,404k	6,419k	6,390k	6,387k	6,368k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,256k	1,242k	1,246k	1,250k	1,252k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,212k	3,225k	3,248k	3,266k	3,282k	3,295k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	359k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,039k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	98k	98k	96k	96k	96k	97k	84k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£904.02bn	£948.22bn	£986.59bn	£1,021.15bn	£1,061.16bn	£1,098.47bn	£1,140.69bn
Government spending	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£373.44bn †	£402.63bn †	£432.79bn †	£460.16bn †	£491.59bn †	£519.69bn †	£552.80bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£904.02bn	£948.22bn	£986.59bn	£1,021.15bn	£1,061.16bn	£1,098.47bn	£1,140.69bn
household_tax	£497.67bn	£528.51bn	£555.73bn	£579.27bn	£605.22bn	£630.03bn	£658.08bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.85bn	£520.38bn	£547.38bn	£570.23bn	£595.94bn	£620.49bn	£648.19bn
gov_spending	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
household_benefits	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
gov_balance	£373.44bn †	£402.63bn †	£432.79bn †	£460.16bn †	£491.59bn †	£519.69bn †	£552.80bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,650.70bn †	£1,695.57bn †	£1,727.87bn †	£1,760.76bn †	£1,793.15bn †	£1,834.40bn †	£1,884.74bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,462.17bn	£1,509.90bn	£1,544.25bn	£1,577.67bn	£1,612.09bn	£1,651.53bn	£1,702.40bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.1%	15.2%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.2%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.7%	22.0%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.0%	14.2%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	20.9%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	22.1%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.1%	31.1%	31.5%	32.0%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.7%	20.3%	20.5%	20.8%	21.0%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.4%	12.6%	12.7%	13.0%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.3%	16.4%	16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.4%	23.4%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.7%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.8%	14.0%	14.2%	13.9%	14.0%	14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.2%	21.2%	21.4%	21.4%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.0%	30.8%	31.0%	31.1%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.4%	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.4%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,163k	10,583k	10,852k	11,004k	11,081k	11,222k	11,226k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,629k	3,221k	3,260k	3,284k	3,310k	3,369k	3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,902k	5,806k	6,080k	6,197k	6,234k	6,304k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,632k	1,556k	1,512k	1,523k	1,537k	1,550k	1,556k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,000k	14,571k	14,945k	15,112k	15,392k	15,663k	15,804k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,004k	4,656k	4,703k	4,723k	4,808k	4,897k	4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,476k	8,431k	8,812k	8,952k	9,130k	9,273k	9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,520k	1,484k	1,430k	1,437k	1,455k	1,492k	1,497k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,974k	11,507k	11,535k	11,642k	11,544k	11,663k	11,712k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,963k	3,570k	3,543k	3,553k	3,489k	3,519k	3,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,246k	6,184k	6,378k	6,475k	6,460k	6,538k	6,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,753k	1,615k	1,613k	1,595k	1,606k	1,628k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,067k	14,732k	14,872k	14,931k	15,091k	15,202k	15,461k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,019k	4,715k	4,686k	4,669k	4,725k	4,754k	4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,497k	8,516k	8,764k	8,884k	8,992k	9,060k	9,192k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,551k	1,502k	1,422k	1,378k	1,374k	1,388k	1,429k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3088	0.3061	0.3067	0.3073	0.3077	0.3083	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,768 †	£17,884 †	£17,830 †	£17,847 †	£18,125 †	£18,315 †	£18,440 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,995 †	£28,845 †	£28,594 †	£29,012 †	£29,189 †	£29,600 †	£30,278 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,275 †	£35,509 †	£36,037 †	£36,498 †	£36,760 †	£37,372 †	£37,928 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,650 †	£40,696 †	£41,778 †	£42,415 †	£43,055 †	£43,779 †	£44,259 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,775 †	£44,546 †	£45,584 †	£46,298 †	£47,371 †	£48,231 †	£49,554 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,323 †	£49,547 †	£50,591 †	£51,565 †	£51,587 †	£53,193 †	£54,178 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,215 †	£57,308 †	£58,072 †	£58,467 †	£59,609 †	£60,184 †	£61,764 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,098 †	£70,411 †	£71,825 †	£72,849 †	£74,256 †	£75,374 †	£77,582 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,578 †	£81,719 †	£82,750 †	£84,111 †	£85,450 †	£86,991 †	£89,920 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,506 †	£120,013 †	£121,860 †	£123,908 †	£125,844 †	£128,160 †	£130,960 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.58bn	£-1.48bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.28bn	£-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.50bn	£-21.94bn	£-22.03bn	£-22.40bn	£-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.49bn	£12.83bn	£13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-8.06bn	£-8.18bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.60bn	£-8.96bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£1.96bn	£1.85bn	£1.74bn	£1.63bn	£1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.49bn	£21.93bn	£22.02bn	£22.40bn	£22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.28bn	£3.36bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn