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Limit same-person carer benefit awards within couples - #2632

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Oct 25, 2026
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vahid-ahmadi merged 2 commits into
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@juaristi22

@juaristi22 juaristi22 commented Oct 24, 2026 •

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Fixes #2028

Apply the same-person restriction to inferred Carer’s Allowance and Carer Support Payment awards within a claimant/partner couple. Caring-hours, age, earnings and take-up conditions stay unchanged. Among eligible partners, the model prefers a reported recipient, then the benefit-unit head, then the eldest partner; member order breaks age ties. This is a modelling convention for an unobserved election or decision, not statutory priority. The convention does not maximise the couple's payment. It can select a partner whose overlapping benefits reduce CA or CSP to zero, while suppressing a payment that the other otherwise-eligible partner could receive if selected.

The restriction applies before overlapping-benefit reductions, so a selected carer retains underlying entitlement when an overlapping benefit reduces the payment to zero. The same-person default reads unrestricted candidate amounts and explicitly supplied award inputs, independently of calculated caches. Directly supplied payment, pre-overlap and entitlement inputs remain authoritative. The Scottish Carer Supplement remains separate from the CSP component.

This covers units with exactly two claimant/partner flags. It does not identify care targets across benefit units, allocate awards to other members, resolve malformed units with more than two partner flags, or reconcile the allowance recipient with another person’s UC carer element. The existing qualifying-care proxy and annual date/rate approximations remain documented limitations.

axiom: needed

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/couple_carer_award.yaml

Validation: 50 focused tests passed in one post-change batch: 47 YAML cases (20 new and 27 retained controls) and 3 property tests. Generated Hypothesis examples are not additional test counts. The YAML RED run had 10 expected assertion failures and 37 passes; the original property attempt timed out after 180 seconds (UV exit143), with no emitted test conclusions, and is retained separately. make format passed before the commit. No full-suite run, private-data calculation or population score is claimed.

Independent local code/test and policy/source review: COMPLETE, with no blocking findings at 9f0df6abde1001c7a6de64bb52c16bc3c28632ae.

@juaristi22 juaristi22 self-assigned this Oct 24, 2026
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 24, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 16a34cfdd7 against head 5176fa5f4f, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,346,675 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,887,703 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,090,734 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 87 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 16a34cfdd7 uk 2.156.1 (files 8a689b300cfd), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 d94ebe5db181 06ff679de152 1714.33s
head #2632 merged into main 5176fa5f4f uk 2.156.1 (files c5518fa20912), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 d94ebe5db181 06ff679de152 1789.98s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.41bn £318.00bn £335.26bn £350.17bn £365.42bn £383.13bn £400.61bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.00bn £158.47bn £163.28bn £167.71bn £174.87bn £180.28bn £187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT £251.45bn £257.40bn £263.96bn £270.05bn £276.34bn £282.83bn £289.13bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.69bn £1.67bn £1.58bn £1.56bn £1.56bn £1.54bn £1.51bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.57bn £9.83bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,061k 6,979k 6,565k 6,472k 6,446k 6,328k 6,184k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,174k 3,198k 3,208k 3,228k 3,243k 3,256k 3,263k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.96bn £943.04bn £981.29bn £1,015.02bn £1,054.03bn £1,090.23bn £1,130.30bn
Government spending £528.69bn † £543.48bn † £551.21bn † £557.49bn † £565.90bn † £574.51bn † £582.44bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £371.27bn † £399.56bn † £430.07bn † £457.53bn † £488.13bn † £515.72bn † £547.86bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.96bn £943.04bn £981.29bn £1,015.02bn £1,054.03bn £1,090.23bn £1,130.30bn
household_tax £496.50bn £527.17bn £554.05bn £577.26bn £602.82bn £627.12bn £654.13bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.71bn £519.08bn £545.75bn £568.28bn £593.61bn £617.65bn £644.33bn
gov_spending £528.69bn † £543.48bn † £551.21bn † £557.49bn † £565.90bn † £574.51bn † £582.44bn †
household_benefits £528.69bn † £543.48bn † £551.21bn † £557.49bn † £565.90bn † £574.51bn † £582.44bn †
gov_balance £371.27bn † £399.56bn † £430.07bn † £457.53bn † £488.13bn † £515.72bn † £547.86bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.58bn † £1,688.78bn † £1,719.54bn † £1,750.52bn † £1,781.50bn † £1,820.80bn † £1,867.01bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.74bn £1,504.86bn £1,537.87bn £1,569.56bn £1,602.79bn £1,640.51bn £1,686.67bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.6% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.2% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.3% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.2% 31.2% 30.9% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,042k 10,465k 10,769k 10,890k 10,993k 11,057k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,171k 3,230k 3,240k 3,280k 3,300k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,846k 5,744k 6,034k 6,134k 6,183k 6,218k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,617k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,546k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,840k 14,418k 14,804k 15,005k 15,265k 15,431k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,667k 4,687k 4,755k 4,820k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,401k 8,356k 8,734k 8,907k 9,048k 9,135k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,503k 1,453k 1,404k 1,412k 1,461k 1,476k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,890k 11,390k 11,463k 11,486k 11,426k 11,531k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,915k 3,517k 3,517k 3,489k 3,449k 3,491k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,197k 6,128k 6,335k 6,400k 6,388k 6,442k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,777k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,588k 1,598k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,943k 14,586k 14,741k 14,809k 14,944k 15,039k 15,355k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,967k 4,674k 4,650k 4,630k 4,688k 4,712k 4,792k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,441k 8,448k 8,700k 8,836k 8,913k 8,976k 9,102k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,535k 1,464k 1,391k 1,342k 1,343k 1,352k 1,460k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3085 0.3058 0.3065 0.3071 0.3076 0.3082 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,769 † £17,863 † £17,836 † £17,884 † £18,171 † £18,306 † £18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,981 † £28,855 † £28,647 † £28,889 † £29,104 † £29,623 † £30,136 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,465 † £35,997 † £36,504 † £36,776 † £37,308 † £38,132 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,269 † £40,694 † £41,907 † £42,379 † £43,105 † £43,923 † £44,174 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,317 † £44,626 † £45,561 † £46,291 † £47,356 † £48,263 † £49,595 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,191 † £49,496 † £50,749 † £51,495 † £52,197 † £53,157 † £54,289 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,171 † £57,178 † £57,767 † £58,422 † £58,912 † £59,960 † £61,831 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,136 † £70,962 † £71,799 † £73,232 † £74,253 † £75,673 † £77,435 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,045 † £82,854 † £84,159 † £85,557 † £87,066 † £89,926 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,592 † £120,305 † £122,094 † £124,174 † £126,053 † £128,344 † £131,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.29bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.24bn £4.46bn £4.73bn £4.92bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.08bn £-4.18bn £-4.24bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.58bn £-1.47bn £-1.37bn £-1.26bn £-1.16bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.40bn £-20.95bn £-21.38bn £-21.63bn £-21.88bn £-22.23bn £-22.62bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.46bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.41bn £12.73bn £13.12bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.90bn £25.56bn £26.15bn £26.76bn £27.39bn £28.04bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.32bn £-3.36bn £-3.41bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-8.02bn £-8.12bn £-8.37bn £-8.53bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.90bn £25.56bn £26.15bn £26.76bn £27.39bn £28.04bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

@juaristi22
juaristi22 marked this pull request as ready for review October 24, 2026 14:29

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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@juaristi22 thanks, first-round review at 9f0df6abd. The restriction is right in law and well tested, and CI is green. One should, on which partner the default picks, so I'm leaving this as a comment rather than an approval.

What I checked

  • Law (legislation.gov.uk, current text). SSCBA 1992 s.70(7ZA): where two or more people would have a relevant entitlement for the same day for the same severely disabled person, only one does, chosen by joint election or, failing that, by the Secretary of State. s.70(7A) defines relevant entitlement as entitlement to Carer's Allowance or to the UC carer element, so it is entitlement, not payment, that is limited. The NI Act 1992 s.70(7ZA) is the same, with the Department deciding. SSI 2023/302 reg 5(3) bars CSP where another person is entitled to CSP, CA or the UC carer element for the same cared-for person; reg 5 has no election rule of its own. DMG 60026 confirms the election is by signed notice and otherwise a decision maker's choice. So applying the limit before the overlapping-benefit reduction, and keeping underlying entitlement for the selected carer, is right.
  • Code: read utils/couple_carer_award.py, both *_pre_couple_limit variables (straight moves of the old formulas), both *_pre_overlap changes, the default in partners_care_for_same_severely_disabled_person and the supplied_inputs.py additions in full. The default now reads the unrestricted candidates, so there is no cycle with the awards it limits.
  • Tests in a fresh venv at head: couple_carer_award.yaml 20 passed; with variables and utils reset to the merge base 15a1d695b, 10 of the 20 fail, so the tests pin the change. YAML under finance/benefit, gov/dwp, gov/social_security_scotland, gov/local_authorities, household/demographic and integration: 2,718 passed. The ten carer Python test modules, including the edited test_legacy_carer_premium_properties.py: 83 passed.
  • CI at head: all checks pass, and the aggregate report flags no moves, as #2028 expected (the enhanced FRS has reported awards, not caring hours).
  • Merge order: this merges cleanly on top of the current merge queue, including #2082, which also edits test_legacy_carer_premium_properties.py, and with #2593 (supplied_inputs.py).

Findings

  1. should: the default can give the award to the partner who cannot be paid. limit_carer_benefit_to_one_partner prefers a reported recipient, then the head, then the eldest, without looking at the overlapping-benefit reduction. My household check, England 2026, couple aged 67 (State Pension £12,000) and 60, both caring 40 hours, flag left to default: at head the 67-year-old is head and keeps the CA entitlement, State Pension reduces it to nil, and the 60-year-old gets nothing. CA paid falls from £4,495.40 (base, paid to the 60-year-old) to £0, and household net income from £16,515.40 to £12,020.00. Member order doesn't change it, since the head is the elder. Scotland with CSP is the same: CSP paid falls from £4,495.40 to £0. The law leaves the choice to the couple, and a couple would not jointly elect the partner whose allowance is not payable, so this convention gives a worse result than the household could get, in a common case (an older couple caring for an adult child, one partner over State Pension age). Could the default, after an eligible reported recipient, prefer the partner whose candidate award survives the overlap reduction, then the head, then the eldest? The overlap reduction reads the other personal benefits, not the carer award, so it should not create a cycle. A YAML case for this couple would pin it. If you'd rather keep the current order, a line in the assumptions page saying it can pick the unpaid partner would at least make it visible. (The issue, filed by Max, suggested "otherwise the claimant", which has the same gap.)

  2. nit: PR body axiom: needed. #2028 notes TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#403 already cites s.70(7ZA), so this could read axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#403 queued.

  3. nit: the two new labels, "Carers allowance before couple and overlap restrictions" and "Carer support payment before couple and overlap restrictions", lose the programme capitals. Their siblings read "Carer's Allowance before the overlapping-benefit adjustment" and "Carer Support Payment before the overlapping-benefit reduction", and #2603 now asks for programme names to keep their capitals: "Carer's Allowance before the couple and overlap restrictions" and "Carer Support Payment before the couple and overlap restrictions".

What looks right: the limit sits before the overlap reduction; two reported awards still mean different care targets; directly supplied payment, pre-overlap and entitlement inputs stay authoritative; and the assumptions page is clear about what is out of scope (care targets across benefit units, the UC carer element allocation).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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@juaristi22 second round at 2b1d71c7c. Thanks for the quick follow-up. No must or should findings remain, CI is green at this head and it merges cleanly, so I'm approving and adding it to the merge queue.

Status of round-1 findings

  1. should, default can pick the partner who cannot be paid: resolved by the alternative I offered. The new paragraph in docs/book/assumptions/carer-support-payment-earnings.md (lines 98-100) and changelog.d/carer-claimant-selection-assumption.changed.md say plainly that the convention does not maximise the couple's payment and can pick a partner whose overlapping benefits reduce CA or CSP to zero. Behaviour is unchanged, as intended: my round-1 household (England 2026, couple aged 67 with £12,000 State Pension and 60, both caring 40 hours) still gives CA paid £0 and household net income £12,020.00 at head, and the Scotland CSP case still gives £0. The PR body now says the same. A payment-maximising default could still be a follow-up, but that is a separate change, not a blocker here.
  2. nit, axiom: needed in the PR body: open, non-blocking. Encode the legacy carer premium (IS Sch 2 para 14ZA and 15(7); HB, HB (SPC), ESA, JSA and CTR equivalents) and the IS carer route (Sch 1B para 4) for the claimant and partner only (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2001) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#403 already cites s.70(7ZA), so axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#403 queued would be more precise.
  3. nit, labels: fixed. carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit.py and carer_support_payment_pre_couple_limit.py now read "Carer's Allowance before the couple and overlap restrictions" and "Carer Support Payment before the couple and overlap restrictions". No test or doc refers to the old labels.

What I checked this round

  • Law, re-fetched from legislation.gov.uk today: the body text of SSCBA 1992 s.70, the NI Contributions and Benefits Act 1992 s.70 and SSI 2023/302 reg 5 is the same as the copies I checked on 24 Oct. s.70(7ZA) still allows only one relevant entitlement (CA or the UC carer element) per severely disabled person per day, by joint election or else by the Secretary of State (in NI, the Department). Reg 5(3) still bars CSP where another person is entitled to CSP, CA or the UC carer element for the same cared-for person. The 15 March 2026 wording change in s.70(7B) ("the carer support payment component of carer support") does not affect the restriction.
  • Code: read the full diff 9f0df6abd...2b1d71c7c (two labels, one docs paragraph, one changelog fragment). No formula changes.
  • Tests in a fresh venv at head: couple_carer_award.yaml 20 passed. YAML under finance/benefit, gov/dwp, gov/social_security_scotland, gov/local_authorities and household/demographic: 2,664 passed; policy/integration: 54 passed. The ten carer Python test modules, including the property tests: 83 passed.
  • CI at 2b1d71c7c: all 19 checks pass, including Test / Python 1/5 to 5/5, Test / YAML and Aggregate impact.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Approving at 2b1d71c; see the comment above.

@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 25, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit da381c7 Oct 25, 2026
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@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi deleted the fix-couple-carer-award-2028 branch October 25, 2026 14:28
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Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment pay two people caring for the same person (SSCBA s.70(7ZA), SSI 2023/302 reg 5(3))

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